The Plant Based World Expo North America celebrated its fifth year at the Javits Center in New York City, bringing together retail and foodservice professionals to explore the future of the plant-based industry. The two-day event set new attendance records, with thousands of visitors, including key decision-makers from foodservice, retail, and hospitality. A major highlight was the expanded Hosted Buyer Matchmaking Program, which facilitated over 500 strategic meetings between suppliers and buyers, reinforcing the importance of live events in fostering business connections.
Global innovation took center stage, with products from around the world pushing the boundaries of what plant-based food can achieve, emphasizing sustainability and nutrition. Industry trends such as the shift toward wholefood-based products and nutrient-rich offerings were key focuses. Educational sessions were open to all attendees, fostering collaboration and knowledge-sharing across sectors. SPINS highlighted the role of retail insights in driving these innovations and shaping the future of the plant-based market. Let’s look at a few SPINS’ market insights…
Market Headwinds and Tailwinds
The plant-based market is facing several challenges due to economic conditions and shifting consumer behavior. Inflation and high interest rates are increasing costs for small and medium-sized businesses, squeezing profitability. Consumer acceptance has slowed, with household penetration declining as concerns over price, taste, texture, and ingredients hinder broader adoption. Market saturation in key segments like alternative meat, which saw initial growth but has since stagnated, further complicates expansion. Price remains a significant barrier, and until plant-based products reach parity with animal-based options, especially in price-sensitive markets, widespread growth will be limited.
On the flipside, the plant-based market is benefiting from increased consumer interest in wellness, with over half of Americans and two-thirds of parents showing a growing preference for healthier, sustainable diets.1 Technological advancement, particularly in fermentation and cell-based proteins, are enhancing the taste and texture of plant-based alternatives, making them more competitive with animal products. Policy support and public funding, such as increased conservation funding in the 2024 Farm Bill and international government backing 2, are also driving growth. Despite economic challenges, the sector continues to attract significant investment, with $907.7 million raised in 2023, fueling innovation and addressing key barriers like price and taste.3
Channel Performance
Over the past years, the rate of plant-based dollar/unit declines has increased. Year to date, the total market size for plant-based products represents nearly $8B industry, primarily owned and driven the conventional channel. Across both channels, similar dynamics were seen. Average retail price increases were not enough to buoy sales, as they were outpaced by unit declines. Unit compression was driven solely by distribution declines for both channels.
Source: SPINSScan Natural Channel (proprietary), Conventional Multi Outlet (powered by Circana), Grocery, Frozen, Refrigerated, & VMS Departments, TPL Universe, All Plant Based Positioned Items (Powered by SPINS Product Intelligence) + Private Label in all Plant Based Subcategories (see appendix for detail), 52 W.E. 01.02.2022, 01.01.2023, 12.31.2023, AND YTD W.E. 7.14.2024
Plant-Based Bright Spots
While total plant-based sales and units were down overall, there were pockets of cross-channel success, including within Protein Supplements (+$22M), RF Cookie & Pastry Doughs (+$7M) and RF Juices ($6M). These categories are continuing to innovate and attract consumers.
Digging a layer deeper into consumer engagement and purchasing behavior, we see some additional plant-based bright spots. While household penetration (%HH Buying) declined, across most plant-based products, for segments like creamer, ice cream and frozen novelties, yogurt, tofu, tempeh and seitan, and eggs, repeat purchasing rate increased. This indicates these parts of the store have an attractive product assortment that continues to appeal to loyal plant-based consumers, enough to increase their purchasing rate. If household penetration increases, while maintaining and increasing repeat rates, performance will help chip away at overall plant-based declines.
Source: SPINS Enhanced National Consumer Panel | Total US – All Outlets | 52 WE 12.3.23
Forward Outlook
For the plant-based market to expand on its somewhat limited success, it is imperative to increase the share of consumers plates, penetrate share of recipes, and expand share of voice within the market. Capturing share is, and has been, dependent on checking off on consumer needs, such as taste, ingredients and price. These areas have been pain points for some/most plant-based categories in the past. We know taste is the number one driver of test and repeat behavior. Ingredients need to meet consumer demand for being clean, functional, and worthy of replacement. Lastly, price parity, relative to product counterparts, is paramount for long-term success. Product innovation that works to achieve the above criteria will continue to appeal to a large audience and drive growth.
Sources:
https://plantbasedworldexpo.com/education/?uww_sessid=f52a00f1-afe4-45d8-889f-9cbdf38f163f
https://vegconomist.com/studies-and-numbers/survey-parents-curious-vegan-food/ 1
https://www.nature.org/en-us/what-we-do/our-priorities/provide-food-and-water-sustainably/food-and-water-stories/supporting-the-farm-bill/ 2
https://gfi.org/resource/plant-based-meat-eggs-and-dairy-state-of-the-industry-report/ 3
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Looking for more information? Please contact the SPINS Account Manager for PRESENCE, Mike Murphy at mmurphy@spins.com.
(847) 277-9500