To kick off the New Year, we are digging into the trends driving shopper behavior. For those who have been reading our newsletter, we’ve tackled shopper behaviors and interests in 2025 from several angles, including plant-based, the Next Generation Consumer, and Reinventing the Modern Kitchen. This time, we’re going to explore Shopper Insights a bit more broadly.
U.S. shoppers continue to demonstrate selective resilience in food, beverage, and supplement purchasing. While inflationary pressures have moderated versus prior years, shoppers remain highly intentional, reallocating spend toward categories that deliver clear functional value, health outcomes, and convenience, while pulling back from discretionary or less differentiated segments. Growth is increasingly concentrated in Refrigerated foods, core Grocery, functional Beverages, and Vitamins & Dietary Supplements, with shoppers prioritizing freshness, protein, digestive health, immunity, and daily wellness maintenance.
Across channels, the strongest momentum is coming from products that sit at the intersection of health + habit—items consumers can justify as both essential and beneficial. Conversely, categories perceived as indulgent, discretionary, or commoditized face ongoing pressure unless supported by premiumization or strong functional claims.
Middle Income Consumers
There is continued compression of the middle-income consumer as upper-income households drive growth.
However, shifting generational wealth will dramatically impact consumer shopping behavior over the next few years. We have seen this trend, with a growing shift among Millennials and Gen Z, driving changes in consumption habits.
As Boomers continue to retire and Gen Z enters the workforce, spending power dynamics will shift dramatically over the next few years, and with that, consumer priorities.
Food Basket Behavior: “essentials” are winning, but the definition of essential has shifted
The center of gravity remains Grocery + Refrigerated. Shoppers are focusing spending on categories that feed weekly routines—then trading within them toward health, freshness, and functional nutrition.
TOTAL US – FOOD: Share and growth contribution
Combined, Grocery + Refrigerated are:
TOTAL US – NATURAL EXPANDED: Share and growth contribution
Combined, Grocery + Refrigerated are:
Refrigerated is the clear momentum category in both—shoppers are signaling willingness to pay for fresh-adjacent, protein-forward, and perceived higher-quality options. Grocery remains the primary “volume engine,” but growth increasingly comes from trade-up pockets (better ingredients, functional benefits, convenience).
Frozen holds a durable role as a value + convenience option. Frozen is functioning as a time-saving hedge and a waste-reduction tool, remaining a consistent contributor.
Frozen growth is a signal that convenience is not being traded away—shoppers are simply demanding that convenience also meets health and quality expectations.
Produce divergence suggests continued price/value tension. Produce is the most visible negative in the TOTAL US – FOOD grouping:
In Natural Expanded, Produce is positive:
This pattern is consistent with shoppers managing produce purchases based on value perception, waste avoidance, and price volatility. In contrast, Natural’s produce mix may benefit from different shopper missions and product mixes. Practically, produce performance is highly sensitive to pricing, seasonality, and trip purpose.
Natural is driving growth across income and generation.
Functional and “Better-for-You” Beverages Lead
Across food and beverage, functionality is now table stakes. Beverages with clear health or performance benefits continue to outperform:
Shoppers increasingly evaluate beverages through a health ROI lens—asking what the product does for them, not just how it tastes.
Alcohol: A Structural, Not Cyclical, Reset
Alcohol continues to face headwinds as U.S. consumers:
The shift is especially pronounced among younger shoppers and higher-income households. Growth opportunities remain in premium, experiential, and low/no-alcohol offerings, but overall alcohol penetration in the total food basket is structurally declining.
Health & Value Focused Living
The combination of healthy and value-focused is driving growth in food and beverage. The key exception is some premium segments, which are growing due to increased income stratification from top earners.
Key Takeaways
The U.S. shopper in food, beverage, and supplements is not retreating—they are recalibrating. Spending is increasingly concentrated in categories and products that deliver tangible health, wellness, and lifestyle benefits, while discretionary and low-value segments continue to face pressure. Premium and natural segments continue to grow even as consumers remain cost-conscious. However, promotions remain important; shoppers are less deal-driven and more mission-driven, responding best to those that align with routine replenishment.
The long-term winners will be those that align with the shopper’s evolving definition of essential: products that justify their place in the basket every week, not just when budgets feel loose.
Sources:
Attribute Ticker
Data Ticker
Below we break out total MULO with Natural Products, Total MULO Base, Total Natural Expanded with Natural Products, and Total Natural Expanded Base.
Looking for more information? Please contact the SPINS Account Manager for PRESENCE, Hans De Schaaf, hdeschaaf@spins.com.
(847) 277-9500