As the U.S. government rolls out a new wave of tariffs in 2025, American consumers are beginning to feel the pinch at the grocery store – not just in the produce aisle, but across a wide range of household essentials. The impact of these tariffs is complex, touching everything from fresh vegetables to disposable dinnerware.
While food and groceries are among the top 20 categories with the highest Tariff Risk Index, new research from Numerator reveals that non-food essentials sold by grocers may be even more vulnerable to tariff-related price hikes. Household items such as plastic cutlery, disposable bowls, plates, and cups currently top Numerator’s list, released on May 12th.
Only two grocery categories made the top 20 most at-risk list being Dessert decorations (Ranked No. 17 and Vegetable oil (Ranked No. 18). The Tariff Risk Index itself is built on five key datasets: Import reliance, Tariff exposure, Purchase power, U.S. consumer sentiment and Price sensitivity.
These metrics help brands and retailers understand which factors are driving a category’s overall risk score. For example, plastic cutlery ranks high due to its heavy dependence on Chinese imports, while vegetable oil and fresh avocados are less impacted by that specific metric.
Mexcio and Canada have a higher tariff index at 25% on imports from Mexico and Canada, while China will see a 10% on Chinese imports. These countries are major suppliers of U.S. grocery staples. For example, Mexico provides a large share of fresh produce like avocados, tomatoes, and strawberries. Canada is a key source of beef, pork, and maple syrup. China exports a range of processed foods, ingredients, and packaging materials.
Price increases are already under way as retailers like Walmart have warned that prices on items such as produce, coffee, and seafood are likely to rise. A Yale Budget Lab report estimates that grocery bills could increase by nearly $4,900 annually for the average American family, with fresh produce prices jumping by 5.4% in the short term. According to Numerator, the indexes for frozen beef, wine, olive oils, shredded cheese, and brick and chunked cheese have all increased under the latest tariff scenario. The May 12th update reflects a 25% tariff on all countries (excluding Canada and Mexico) and a reduced 30% tariff on China – down from 145% in the April 9th scenario.
Although tariffs are imposed on foreign goods, the cost is passed down the supply chain: Importers pay the tariffs, Retailers either absorb the cost or pass it on to consumers and Consumers, especially low-income households, are hit hardest. Over 50% of low-income families have already reported cutting back on grocery staples in early 2025.
To cope with rising costs, grocers are shifting to domestic suppliers where possible and expanding private label offerings. Consumers, meanwhile, are switching to cheaper alternatives, buying in bulk and reducing consumption of certain imported goods.
With retaliatory tariffs from Canada and China also in play, the situation remains volatile. If trade tensions persist, the long-term impact could include sustained inflation in food and household item prices, changes in consumer behavior, such as reduced brand loyalty and increased price sensitivity.
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